It is a matter of deep concern that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in our country is fast declining, which means the number of babies an average woman aged 15-49 bears over her lifetime, and its likely impact on future growth of population which is entering into negative zone; and its impact on existence of our society.
Sarsangh Chalak of Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), Mohan Bhagwat ji, has also expressed his concern over falling total fertility rates in India below 2.0. It’s notable that, Lancet in his latest publication had reported that India’s TFR has come down to 1.91 by the year 2021. Further Lancet’s study has projected that by the year 2050, TFR may fall to 1.29. It’s notable that in the year 1950, fertility rate was 6.18 children per woman.
A TFR of 2.1 is considered ‘replacement-level fertility’. This means that a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives. It ensures that each generation replaces itself. Nation has to ensure that population doesn’t really fall.
We need to take this warning seriously, as Sarsangh Chalak Ji has said that decline in TFR, to less than replacement rate, means that with this the societies cease to exist, without anyone destroying them. Therefore, the society is faced with the danger of extinction in the long run, which is a cause of major worry, and has said that TFR shouldn’t in any case fall below 2.1.
Globally, also the trend is towards generally declining TFR. We see that the developed countries with constantly declining and low TFR have been facing contraction in their population. TFR has fallen much below the replacement level of 2.1 in South Korea, Japan, Germany etc., threatening their very existence. Bharat must learn from these countries and take remedial measures to reverse the declining trend.
Due to the decreasing infant mortality rate, the youth population in the country started increasing continuously, a phenomenon known as ‘demographic dividend’. If we take the data from 2001, the population of youth (age group of 15 to 34 years) in the country was 33.80 per cent of the total population, which increased to 34.85 per cent in 2011. It is currently more than 35.3 per cent of the total population. When one looks at absolute numbers, it becomes clear that today, India has the largest number of youth in comparison to any other country. This segment of the population can contribute more to development.
With changing time, economists have started realising that rising population is no longer a burden, and with fast advancing health services, the death rate, especially infant mortality rate has come down drastically, improving chances for our children to survive longer, adding further to demographic dividend and contribute to the development of the nation.
However, our efforts towards improving chances of survival of our children would not suffice if fertility rate falls to less than replacement rate. Even the population Policy of India of the year 2000 had clearly stated, “…by adopting cross-sectoral working strategies, the medium-term goal is to raise the TFR to replacement level (TFR of 2.1) by 2010”. It has further stated its long-term goal, “to stabilize the population by 2045 at a level that satisfies the demands of societal development, environmental preservation, and sustainable economic growth”.
Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, in its national council meeting held June 2024 in Lucknow, had passed a resolution also in this regard, expressing concerns over these trends in TFR. The Manch calls upon people of Bharat in general and opinion makers, policy analysis and policy makers in particular to delve upon this issue of declining TFR to less than replacement level, endangering the existence of the society in the long-run.
We need to come clear that today the problem faced by Indian economy is to maintain its population, so that our development efforts don’t face any hurdle. We must understand that if we fail to rise to the occasion, it may cause dangerous imbalance in the population in the form of raising the dependency burden, slowing down our growth.
About author: Prof. Ashwani Mahajan is the Delhi-based National Co-Convener of Swadeshi Jagran Manch.
Why RSS is worried about the decline of population in the county ? Why they are not asking for good health and education to the people? The quality of the population is more important than numbers …India on all counts of human index has gone down during RSS backed governments at the centre and states . Most of the RSS dignitaries are unmarried …hence they don’t understand the problems of large families. To sum up their advice is not going to make any effect even on their staunch adherents. Hopefully the people will laugh at their advice ….
How sad the assessment of RSS is! The developing countries like India and China have been a victim of over population, and the underdeveloped nations are striving hard to resolve this crisis. Whereas, in India, as in the present case, people are being exhorted to not to go ahead with control measures.